Looking Forward
I’ve seen 30 years.
Here’s what I expect in the next 10.
These are predictions, not certainties.
But based on clear trends.
Prediction 1: Consolidation Continues
What will happen:
More mergers and acquisitions.
Big players get bigger.
Small players get acquired or disappear.
Why:
Scale advantages in procurement.
R&D costs rising.
Regulatory compliance costs rising.
Customer demand for global supply.
What this means:
Mid-sized companies must differentiate.
Specialty niches become more valuable.
Strategic partnerships more common.
Prediction 2: Bio-based Goes Mainstream
What will happen:
Bio-based surfactants capture 15-20% of market.
Up from 5-10% today.
Prices become more competitive.
Why:
Technology improving.
Scale increasing.
Regulation favoring renewables.
Consumer demand growing.
What this means:
Traditional manufacturers must adapt.
Investment in bio-technology needed.
New players will emerge.
Prediction 3: Sustainability Becomes Table Stakes
What will happen:
RSPO (or equivalent) becomes minimum requirement.
Carbon footprint disclosure mandatory.
Sustainability no longer differentiator—it’s expected.
Why:
Regulatory pressure.
Brand requirements.
Consumer expectations.
Investor demands.
What this means:
Non-sustainable products lose market access.
Cost of sustainability premium reduces.
Everyone must comply.
Prediction 4: Concentrated Products Dominate
What will happen:
Concentrated formats take 40-50% of consumer market.
Up from 15-20% today.
Traditional liquids decline.
Why:
E-commerce logistics.
Sustainability pressure.
Consumer convenience.
Cost efficiency.
What this means:
Reformulation expertise critical.
Packaging innovation needed.
High-purity raw materials preferred.
Prediction 5: Regulation Increases Everywhere
What will happen:
Emerging markets adopt stricter standards.
China, India, ASEAN tighten rules.
Global harmonization slowly progresses.
Why:
Environmental awareness growing.
Health concerns increasing.
International trade pressures.
What this means:
Compliance costs rise.
Documentation requirements increase.
Small players struggle more.
Quality becomes more important than price.
Prediction 6: Digital Transformation Accelerates
What will happen:
Online sales become 30-40% of B2B transactions.
AI assists formulation and quality control.
Supply chain fully digitized.
Why:
Technology improving.
New generation of buyers.
Efficiency demands.
COVID accelerated the shift.
What this means:
Digital presence essential.
Data becomes valuable asset.
Traditional sales methods less effective.
Prediction 7: Asia Leads Innovation
What will happen:
China and India become innovation centers.
Not just low-cost manufacturing.
Patents and new technologies emerge from Asia.
Why:
Investment in R&D.
Large domestic markets for testing.
Growing technical talent.
Government support.
What this means:
Western companies can’t ignore Asian innovation.
Partnerships across regions important.
Technology flows in all directions.
Prediction 8: Specialty Products Grow Faster
What will happen:
Commodity surfactants: 2-3% annual growth.
Specialty surfactants: 5-7% annual growth.
Specialty share of market increases.
Why:
Differentiation needs.
Performance requirements.
Regulatory drivers.
Higher margins attract investment.
What this means:
Pure commodity players squeezed.
Technical expertise more valuable.
Customer service more important.
Prediction 9: Labor Challenges Persist
What will happen:
Skilled workers remain scarce.
Automation increases out of necessity.
Knowledge transfer becomes critical.
Why:
Aging workforce in developed markets.
Young people choosing other careers.
Technical expertise takes years to build.
What this means:
Training and development essential.
Documentation of knowledge important.
Automation investment justified.
Retention strategies matter.
Prediction 10: The Industry Survives and Adapts
What will happen:
Despite challenges, surfactants remain essential.
Cleaning isn’t going away.
Industry adapts as it always has.
Why:
Fundamental human need.
No replacement technology in sight.
Constant innovation keeps industry relevant.
What this means:
Career opportunities remain.
Investment continues.
Change brings opportunity.
Advice for the Next Decade
For young professionals:
Learn the fundamentals deeply.
But embrace new technologies.
Sustainability expertise valuable.
Digital skills important.
For established professionals:
Share your knowledge.
Mentor the next generation.
Stay curious about new developments.
Don’t resist change—guide it.
For business owners:
Invest in sustainability now.
Build digital capabilities.
Develop specialty niches.
Prepare for consolidation opportunities.
For everyone:
Stay informed.
Network across the industry.
Never stop learning.
Final Thoughts
The industry I entered 30 years ago is different today.
It will be different again in 10 years.
Change is the only constant.
But fundamentals remain.
Quality. Relationships. Expertise. Service.
These never go out of style.
Master them, and you’ll thrive in any future.
